SYNTHETIC / MODELED PLANNING ANALYSISMSP is a public-data anchor, not a clientHistorical replay and governed planning products, not an engineering recommendation
Airport Energy OperationsPLANNING STUDIO — STRATEGIZE
as_of —
Scenario
Compare portfolio
Dotted-underlined values open their evidence — drawer, then rows, then the source file. Every value badged.
hour —
loading governed data…
Reliability under stress
Bands hold on unseen data, break in extreme regimes PREDICTED
left: 80% interval coverage by regime, out-of-sample · right: hours flagged extreme by load, forecast miss, or import-heavy interchange · click either side
80% coverage by regime
Danger hours per winter season DERIVED
Crisis price tags
What each scenario would actually cost MODELED
Cost to close the gap
Cheapest winter-firm capacity first DERIVED
Portfolio comparison
Which portfolio to fund MODELED
Where client data plugs in
Which data feed removes the most uncertainty, in MW DERIVED
Model detail and full alternative scan
Demand outlook
Out-of-sample record PREDICTED
p50p10–p90MISO peak envelope
Capacity gap
Need vs firm MODELED
Rule-in / rule-out screen
All 14 alternatives — cost, winter value, gates, disposition DERIVED
cost and winter % from register records (evidence id shown) · — means unquantified in register, a gap not a zero · gate icons count constraint-typed records · click any row to drill
Hard gate(s)Soft/uncertainty onlyUngated
Feasibility
Constraint & evidence matrix DERIVED
Decision intelligence
White-space priority matrix DERIVED
UncertaintyDecision impact
Detailed alternatives and governed records
Full alternative comparison
Forecasting fails at regime change — lead time is the hedge — years from decision to firm capacity online · MODELED assumptions · the model that can\u2019t flag the big miss is why these bars matter · click a row
Operations → planning promotion boundary
Operational observationReplay event, evidence-badged
→
Recurring patternRepeated governed observations
→
Planning assumptionSensitivity-tested
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Approved planning inputHuman-reviewed evidence
Governed records — the full register; 141 of 146 records link to their published source, 5 carry citation only · EVIDENCE